Title: The Evidence Base for CDR Options
Date: 13 May 12:00 CEST
Organized by: University of Aberdeen
38 attendees
Moderator: Prof. Pete Smith
Speaker
Dr. Sarah Lück, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Germany
Webinar’s panel :
Moderator: Dr. Mohamed Abdalla
Prof. Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen, UK
Prof. Sabine Fuss: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Germany
Prof. Detlef Van Vuuren, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Dr. Sarah Lück presented the paper “Lück et al., 2024,” titled “Scientific Literature on Carbon Dioxide Removal Much Larger Than Previously Suggested: Insights from an AI-Enhanced Systematic Map.” Utilizing artificial intelligence, her team created a comprehensive map of CDR literature, hand-labelling 5,339 documents to train machine learning classifiers. This process identified 28,976 CDR studies from 1990-2022, far exceeding previous estimates. The study provides detailed insights into CDR methods, geographical research focus, research methodologies, and areas of study, highlighting the field’s rapid growth, particularly in biochar, which accounted for 62% of publications in 2022. Most research (86%) focuses on improving CDR methods, with minimal attention to societal implications and ethics. The study also reveals significant differences between IPCC report citations and actual CDR publication patterns, especially regarding method focus, research design, and practical applications. Given the increasing importance of CDR for achieving the Paris climate goals, this extensive literature database will be invaluable for future IPCC assessments and for informing science, policy, and practice.
Prof. Pete Smith emphasized the significance of Sarah’s work for the UPTAKE project partners in Aberdeen, particularly regarding Soil Carbon Sequestration (SCS). He was impressed by the extensive review conducted by Sarah and her team, highlighting the collaboration between various partners. Pete noted that most high-potential CDR studies focus on land-based methods such as afforestation, SCS, and peatland restoration. This focus provides valuable specific data on carbon sequestration and CO2 removal rates in different areas. However, he pointed out the challenge of deriving generic numbers without regional modelling. To address this, Pete proposed combining systematic reviews with process base modelling to achieve more comprehensive results.
Prof. Sabine Fuss discussed the broader CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) portfolio, emphasizing the importance of placing research in a wider perspective. She praised Sarah’s review for its comprehensive coverage of individual CDR technologies including bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)) as widely included in the scenario literature. Sabine noted that the integrated assessment models in the UPTAKE project will greatly benefit from Sarah’s work, as it enables systematic review of individual technologies delivering the kind of information modelers need to integrate CDR options beyond BECCS. She highlighted the ongoing discussions about scaling up CDR, pointing out that current climate impacts, such as wildfires, droughts, and pest infestations, can lead to CO2 release from biomass, underscoring the need for a more resilient CDR portfolio. The UPTAKE project aims to utilize this knowledge to inform policy, focusing on potential, costs, and implementation at scale.
Prof. Detlef Van Vuuren discussed UPTAKE’s plans and scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), emphasizing the significance of Sarah’s work. He noted that Sarah’s analysis stands out because it highlights areas often overlooked in most CDR research and integrated models, as reflected in the cited articles and graphs. Detlef acknowledged the valuable lessons Sarah’s presentation offers for IAMs and UPTAKE’s work in general. He pointed out that IAMs typically focus on bioenergy, CCS, afforestation, and DACCS due to their perceived large potential and the ability of models to dynamically integrate these options with energy and land use systems. However, IAMs often offer less on other CDR options, making their inclusion in scenarios crucial for comprehensive climate strategies. UPTAKE aims to address this gap by exploring the technical potential of various CDR options and incorporating them into IAMs. Detlef also highlighted the role of cost-effectiveness in achieving climate goals, noting that IAMs often favor CDR due to its cost advantages. He mentioned ongoing discussions about balancing cost, risk, and failure metrics in strategies, emphasizing the need to improve IAMs to better account for these factors. Detlef raised concerns about the permanence of some CDR options and the climate impacts of overshooting temperature targets. He stressed the importance of considering factors beyond cost to potentially limit CDR’s role in IAMs literature. Additionally, he highlighted the need to explore policy instruments for implementing CDR options, addressing the real-world challenges of afforestation and other methods, and how to distribute CDR credits among regions. Overall, Detlef called for a broader perspective in IAMs that includes diverse CDR options and considers practical implementation and policy challenges.
Questions and answers:
What about the uncertainty in the results due to using only English literature?
Sarah: While acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in using only English literature, Sarah emphasized that this approach remains the most comprehensive and reliable method currently available.
How does the CDR portfolio perform under lower CO2 concentrations?
Detlef: Detlef mentioned that exploring long-term CDR under lower CO2 concentrations is an interesting avenue for research, though it hasn’t been thoroughly considered yet in the UPTAKE project.
Why is biochar so dominant in the literature?
Sarah: Biochar’s dominance is due to its significant agricultural benefits, with extensive studies conducted on various crops and soil types.
Why is biochar particularly dominant in China?
Pete: Pete suggested that China’s focus on biochar might be driven by its need to improve soil carbon as a response to poor air quality.
How close are we to integrating biochar into IAMs?
Detlef: Detlef noted several challenges, including less optimistic effects on yields and regulatory barriers in some regions. However, modelling the energy consequences of biochar production is possible, and these challenges could be addressed during the UPTAKE project.
Join us for the inaugural UPTAKE Science Webinar organized by the University of Aberdeen, focusing on The Evidence Base for CDR Options.
13 May 2024 | 12:00 CEST
Speaker: Dr Sarah Lück
Register now to attend: Microsoft Virtual Events Powered by Teams2024-05-12T22:00:00Z→2024-05-13T11:00:00Z
