The emerging compromise in the EU 2040 climate target negotiations between Member States and European Parliament foresees the re-introduction of international credits as well as adjustment options for the overall ambition level in case (LULUCF) removals do not meet earlier expectations. Detailed rules and criteria are not clear yet, and they may only be worked out once an agreement on the European Climate Law has been reached. In this webinar, we want to discuss what the emerging climate policy shifts post-2030 may mean for demand and supply of Carbon Dioxide Removal, both within Europe and beyond, and what we can learn from current and past experience with international cooperation on mitigation.
The webinar focused on the agreement on the EU’s 2040 climate target and the future role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in EU climate policy, particularly in relation to international carbon credits. The panelists discussed how the compromise on the 2040 target could incentivise demand for CDR, the role international cooperation and credits can play, and how high-quality removals can be ensured. The timeline and practical challenges of implementation were also addressed.
Some takeaways from the discussion are:
The agreement on the 2040 target could be a relevant signal for future demand for CDR.
The 2040 target provides strategic orientation for the role of CDR in EU climate policy and may help signal future demand. However, the extent to which this translates into concrete demand will depend on implementation and concrete policy instruments. In particular, the integration of permanent CDR into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) could play an important role.
The role of international carbon credits has become more prominent in the discussion.
As the agreement on the 2040 target allows the use of high-quality international credits to contribute up to 5 % of net emissions reduction toward the 90 % target starting from 2036, international credits will be an important part of EU climate policy. This has intensified discussions around trade-offs between domestic permanent CDR and the use of international credits.
Ensuring high-quality removals remains a central challenge.
The panelists emphasised that the development of robust quality criteria, including permanence and the like-for-like principle, is critical in avoiding dilution risks and is expected to be addressed in upcoming EU legislation. Furthermore, developments under Article 6, particularly methodologies developed under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), will play an important role. Early bilateral initiatives, such as Switzerland’s bilateral agreements and pilot projects with Norway, Sweden and Kenya, can provide central lessons.
December 17, 2025 9.00 am - 10 am (CET)
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