We’re bringing work to Milano (Trabucco & Zomer, CMCC) on a removal pathway that is largely already in the ground — and largely uncounted: trees on agricultural land. Using MODIS-derived tree cover from 2000–2020 across ~22 million km² of agricultural land, we find a steady, widespread increase: global mean tree cover rose from 15.5% to 17.3% (a 12% relative gain), equivalent to roughly 40 million hectares of additional full tree cover. The majority of the world’s agricultural land now carries ≥10% tree cover, up from 45% to 55% in two decades, with gains across all cover classes — a structural shift toward woodier landscapes.
Applying empirically derived carbon/tree-cover relationships, this implies a biomass carbon gain of ~4.6 Pg C over the period (~0.23 Pg C yr⁻¹) — on the order of a few percent of annual anthropogenic emissions and 6–7% of the land sink. Yet it sits mostly outside formal carbon accounting, MRV, and CDR portfolios.
There’s an equity dimension too: while >1.1 billion people live in landscapes with ≥10% tree cover, population growth has outpaced tree cover gains in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa — the regions most dependent on trees for adaptation and resilience.
Two questions for the group: how do we bring distributed, on-farm tree cover into credible MRV without pricing out smallholders? And should maintaining and enhancing existing agricultural tree cover count as CDR, alongside novel removals? Happy to discuss — find us in Milano.
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