As we count down to the 4th International Conference on Carbon Dioxide Removal in Milano, we are hosting a series of deep-dive discussions on the research that will be shaping our sessions this June.
This study maps the role of a diversified CDR portfolio in India’s strategy to reach net-zero emissions by 2070.It explores a diversified CDR portfolio that evolves over time, shifting from Biochar to a reliance on Enhanced Rock Weathering and BECCS. It provides a look at how these technologies can neutralize industrial emissions.
Full Abstract: Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal in India’s Decarbonization Strategy
Aravind Srinivasachari, Aman Malik, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Joy Rajbanshi
India is on a trajectory of decoupling emissions from economic growth, driven by energy and climate policies and by market developments that have lowered renewable technology costs over the last decade. However, with the twin objectives of becoming a developed economy by mid-century and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, the challenge of decarbonisation will intensify. In this context, India’s long-term low-emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS) recognises the need for carbon dioxide removals (CDR) to reach net-zero, but currently relies primarily on afforestation. CDR contains a suite of technologies, and while prior literature has focused on its global role, India-specific assessments remain limited. Consequently, the benefits, costs, and trade-offs associated with CDR deployment are insufficiently examined.
This study, therefore, addresses two key research questions: (i) the role of CDR technologies in achieving India’s net-zero target, and (ii) which CDR technologies are most relevant under India-specific system constraints. To investigate these questions, we use a modified version of the integrated assessment model GCAM v6 (GCAM 6.0 CEEW-CDR), incorporating five CDR options—Biochar, Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW), and Direct Air Capture with Carbon Capture and Storage, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), and afforestation—with India-specific costs and potentials. We analyse four scenarios—current policy (CP), LowCDR, MedCDR, and HighCDR—all achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 but differing in CDR deployment scale.
We find that CDRs become systemically relevant only after 2050. By 2070, emissions of 0.15, 0.40, 0.75, and 1.3 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ are offset by CDRs in the CP, LowCDR, MedCDR, and HighCDR scenarios, respectively. These removals are primarily used to offset cement, iron and steel, freight transport, and aviation sectors. CDR also reduces the economic cost of reaching net-zero, with benefits accruing non-linearly with CDR deployment, especially in the decade preceding net-zero. Carbon prices range from 1252 to 246 US$/tCO₂ in 2070 across the CP and HighCDR scenarios. Biochar-based removals dominate initially, reaching 85 MtCO₂yr⁻¹ by 2045 in the HighCDR scenario. Over time, increasing biomass competition shifts removals toward BECCS, which has the advantage of simultaneously providing energy and removals. In the HighCDR scenario, removals are therefore dominated by ERW (51%) in 2070, followed by BECCS (41.5%). However, HighCDR entails significant requirements for cropland (110 Mha yr⁻¹), basalt extraction (2.2 Bt yr⁻¹), and biomass supply (420 Mt yr⁻¹). Overall, ERW and BECCS offer substantial economic benefits for achieving net-zero and should be included in India’s LT-LEDS, though their long-term feasibility depends on resolving key system trade-offs. In the near term, enabling mechanisms such as Article 6 could mobilise climate finance and help build a domestic CDR ecosystem, facilitating scale-up in later decades.
Which CDR technology do you think is most realistic for India, given its land and resource constraints?