What happens in- and outside — Europe when we ramp up agriculture-based carbon removal through biochar, soil carbon management, and agroforestry?
Here we present insights from integrated land system scenario modeling that accounts for the dynamic interactions between CDR deployment, agricultural land use, and global trade. These three methods differ substantially in their biomass demands, sequestration potential, and co-benefits for agricultural systems — and these differences shape how the land system responds when deployment scales up.
We find that ambitious agri-CDR rollout in the EU creates land demand shocks absorbed through multiple pathways — agricultural intensification, cropland reallocation, and shifting trade patterns — generating an imported land footprint beyond European borders. The magnitude of these effects depends on the method and the ambition level. These results highlight why accounting for land system feedbacks and international trade dynamics matters for assessing what large-scale agri-CDR deployment truly entails — and for designing policy portfolios that account for it.
ICCDR26 - LCA & Techno-economic Assessment 6 - Thu, 12:30-13:30 - Room B