In a recently published policy brief, ‘Divide to deliver: Why 2040 separate targets for carbon removal are feasible and necessary to reach EU net zero’, Rodica Avornic and Allix Baxter from Carbon Gap have illustrated the reasons why setting different targets for carbon reduction and removal that can be achieved by the EU by 2040 is feasible and necessary.
Key takeaways:
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The instrumental role of CDR in removing CO2 emissions that have been released to the atmosphere as a result of the economic activities that have characterised the post World War II era as well as those that originate from the so-called ‘hard-to-abate sectors’ should be duly acknowledged.
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Modelling studies demonstrate that well-articulated 2040 objectives for emission reductions as well as temporary and permanent CDR are attainable and instrumental for enabling the EU to be regarded as a transparent actor that can set out unambiguous rules and foster the foreseeability of investment flows.
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The determination of distinct objectives for carbon removals and emission reductions would remove the obstacles that would prevent the adequate monitoring of the progress made towards achieving the net zero goal.
- Engagement in permanent CDR presents advantages in the long term by sequestering carbon for a period ranging from centuries to millenia.
- On the other hand, temporary CDR that makes use of natural resources like trees, soils and other biomass resources is susceptible to leakage risks in that it loses its effectiveness in the event of extreme weather events or modifications to the methods employed to utilize land.
- Temporary removals will reach their full potential by 2040 in view of the achievements that will be obtained by the operators of the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (‘LULUCF’) sector. Within this time frame, approximately 350 Mt of CO2 are expected to be removed.
- That said, the EU cannot reach its climate targets by solely bolstering temporary removals, which should be complemented by the establishment of a plan for scaling permanent CDR.
- Notwithstanding the divergent outcomes that can emerge depending on the level of ambition of the steps that will be taken to cut emissions, the EU will need to deploy a great amount of permanent CDR in the years to come. As a result, the EU can realize its climate goals if it can remove CO2 within the range of 100 and 280 Mt on an annual basis. This amount considerably exceeds the threshold of 75 Mt that has been previously set by the Commission.
- The EU cannot achieve its net zero target by expanding the deployment of a single CDR method. Instead, it should implement a number of CDR methods simultaneously to tackle the different economic and duration-related trade-offs they entail as well as the diversity of the risks they pose stemming from the establishment of physical infrastructures and introduction of monitoring, reporting and verification (‘MRV’) schemes.
- Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (‘BECCS’) is projected to be the permanent CDR method that will be deployed to the greatest extent until 2040. However, the employment of other permanent methods, particularly direct air capture (‘DAC’) whose high energy and cost-related demands is anticipated to prevent its immediate deployment, should initiate before 2040.
- Taking advantage of the catalyst provided by the amendment of the Climate Law, a possibility that can emerge once every ten years, the EU should swiftly establish separate objectives for emission reductions and carbon removals to endow its legal framework with definitiveness. In making progress towards achieving such objectives, the EU should establish tailored policy mechanisms that can facilitate the diffused implementation of CDR.
Read the policy brief here: Divide to deliver: Why 2040 separate targets for carbon removal are feasible and necessary to reach EU net zero - Carbon Gap