I’ll be presenting at the 4th International Conference on Carbon Dioxide Removal in Milan (10th–12th June) as part of Fundamental Science & Technology (FST) – Session 8: BECCS & Forestry on 11 June .
My work examines BECCS and afforestation/reforestation – two of the most prominent land-based CDR options. The key question is: how do Earth system feedbacks, particularly climate impacts on biomass productivity and fire-induced carbon losses, shape their long-term potential?
Using the OSCAR model, extended with new crop and wildfire modules, we assessed future CDR capacity across scenarios. Our projections of energy crop production reveal significant overestimation by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Furthermore, while post-fire recovery offsets most fire emissions, the cumulative net fire flux varies with scenarios.
I’d be very interested to hear how others are accounting for climate feedbacks and disturbance risks (e.g., fire, drought) in their CDR assessments – whether for BECCS, forestry, or other nature-based solutions .